Peace isn’t profitable

Another round of UN-sponsored peace talks aimed at a political settlement to the war in Syria ended in typical fashion:

1. Opposition says “we won’t talk about anything else until you agree that Assad steps down, immediately.”
2. Government tells the opposition to go fuck themselves.
3. Opposition blames Government for not being “serious”.
4. Nothing changes and everyone goes back to doing what they were doing.

What the opposition is demanding, in essence, is that the government forces accept defeat as a precondition to any negotiations. This might make sense if the balance of forces were stacked in favor of the opposition and the government, facing an inevitable loss, wished to use what strength they had remaining as leverage at the negotiating table.

The roles, in this case, are reversed, however. It’s the opposition that is on the back foot and on the brink of defeat. Given that the eastern portion of the country has largely been liberated from ISIS, the Syrian government has the ability now to bring the bulk of its forces to bear on the other rebel groups.

In other words, the cost to the opposition for repeatedly coming to the table with the same non-starter precondition is likely to be complete annihilation.

Why continue to beat this dead horse? The opposition still has bargaining chips. The government would likely make some sort of concessions to avoid the further bloodshed and destruction required to liberate Idlib province and root out the last stubborn pockets of resistance around the country. Why isn’t the opposition bargaining in good faith for reforms that would result in more liberties, competitive elections, etc.?

I can only speculate but I can think of two reasons.

First, because the opposition is not interested in liberty and democracy. These are buzzwords thrown about to make them more palatable. The fact that they’re bankrolled by some of the most oppressive governments who rule some of the most backwards countries in the world — the type that make Assad’s Syria look like a beacon of freedom — and are sharing the foxholes with Al Qaeda, et al. should make it obvious that they are not fighting to make Syria better. They’re fighting to make Syria worse.

Second, because the ones negotiating are not the ones who are going to do the dying. The would-be new aristocracy of Syria that’s been groomed by the Saudis and their ilk are not going to suffer. They’re going to live abroad on the Gulf monarchs’ dime while their country is destroyed. The gulf theocracies, European “human rights” bleeding-hearts, and of course the Trump regime know the opposition is not going to win the war. But they’re willing to keep the money going as long as the opposition keeps on fighting. You see, if the war ended today and peace broke out in Syria, who would bleed Iran and Russia? The opposition’s backers are using them for no other reason than to be a thorn in the side of their geopolitical opponents. And the opposition’s aristocracy knows which side it’s bread is buttered on. They can keep living lavishly abroad as long as they keep sending their followers into the meat grinder.

What other reason could their be for their reluctance to actually negotiate in good faith, despite their obviously impending defeat? The opposition’s “leaders” will keep doing their masters’ bidding, because if they actually made peace, the gravy train might stop.

Peace isn’t profitable.